Predictions 2011

I really should finish up my predictions before January comes to an end.  

What does David Miscavige predict?  Well, several years ago, he promised, to wild applause, that he would "open 70 new Ideal Orgs" that year.  That didn't happen.  It would have required Miscavige to open up "his" church accounts and pay for it -- everyone knows that wouldn't happen.

Last year, as I recall, he promised to open up an Advanced Org/Saint Hill organization on "every continent".  Tumultuous applause.  Didn't happen.  Not even one new AOSH was established.  Again, it's "his" money and he doesn't want to let it go.

For years Miscavige has been promising that this year they will "eradicate psychiatry" from this planet.  And every single year, nothing happens.

And, this year, Miscavige, once again, is promising he will "complete the Super Power building and start delivering Super Power".

So I'll start with the easy predictions:

• Still no 70 Ideal Orgs created,
• Still no new AOSH orgs created on "every continent",
• Still no effect on psychiatry, and
• Still no Super Power.

I found out that the official version of the Super Power building "promise", apparently, is that they will start on the Super Power building this year.  Huh? For some of you, this may seem a bit of a WTF.  What is that big, ugly building across the street from the Fort Harrison if it isn't the Super Power building?

That building is actually known as the "Flag Annex" by insiders.  The Super Power section of the building hasn't been built.  Rumor has it that the design for the Super Power part of the building has been "settled", but I doubt it.

However, the most important part of that huge, ugly building is not the Flag Annex part, nor is it the Super Power part.  No, the most important part of that building is David Miscavige's Office.  This started out as part of one of that building's massive floors, then half, and it now takes up almost an entire floor all by itself.  This is one of the main reasons it has taken so long -- designing the largest, most luxurious, most secure single-person office this world has ever seen takes a long time!  Every few weeks, Miscavige rips up the plans for his office and demands a redesign.

It will never get built.  The Super Power building will never get opened -- not the Flag Annex part, not the Super Power part and definitely not Miscavige's office.

Some more obvious predictions:

• Even more major media exposés of the church's lies, crimes and abuses,
• More Miscavige insanity and abuse,
• More government investigations,
• More Scientologists leaving, and
• More Scientology celebrities leaving.  It will be fun to watch.

Everyone is wondering when certain mega-celebrities will officially leave.  We've seen Tom Cruise emphatically disassociating himself from the Church of Scientology, but when will he repair the damage by publicly quitting?

• Miscavige will continue to personally direct the church's "counter-attacks", which will fail miserably and will, instead, make the Church of Scientology look even worse,
• At which point Miscavige will declare "victory", again.
• David Miscavige will continue to live the lifestyle of a billionaire, while bankrupting and destroying the lives of the very few Scientologists left in the church.

Local churches will continue to close but, of course, secretly.  Miscavige must keep the façade up.  Since Miscavige has already "consolidated" all the orgs that were close to each other, he will have to find more creative ways to hide his org closings.

You might not know this but each Scientology org can be considered to be two orgs.  One, called "Day", operates Monday through Friday during the day.  The other, called "Foundation", operates evenings and weekends.  These two orgs obviously use the same building but operate separately, with separate staff and separate "stats".

I expect many small orgs are already operating in Foundation-only mode.  All they need is one person to cover reception and the book store to give the appearance of still being open during Day hours.  I expect more and more orgs to go into this form of Foundation-only mode.

I also predict that more local orgs will sell their new, empty "Ideal Org" buildings once they realize they can't afford it.  This will always be justified as "it didn't meet our needs", as Portland Org did recently.  I expect orgs to "expand" into cheaper quarters -- while touting that as an "Ideal Org" move.

More and more orgs will have notices taped to their doors about unpaid utilities and unpaid rent but, since no one goes there any more, few will notice.

However, the main drama will center on the Independent Scientology movement. Tons of drama, but nothing much actually happening.  Newly-out Scientologists may land there, temporarily, with more news of abuse and crimes so it's worth monitoring.

As long as the outside Scientology practitioners don't implement the abusive and fraudulent parts of Scientology, and if they can stop lying about their results -- we wish them well.

So those are my predictions for 2011.  The Church of Scientology will continue to collapse.  Miscavige will cover it up, and continue to make his stupid mistakes.

But, for the most part, the collapse of the Church of Scientology will be boring.  Sorry about that.
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Ask a Question

Once again, the number of questions on the most recent Ask a Question have gotten unwieldy, so I'll start a new one.

There really are some great questions and discussions in Ask a Question 1, Ask a Question 2 and Ask a Question 3.  I always enjoy going back and reading them.

You want to know something about Scientology or the Church of Scientology, ask here!  You have a suggestion?  Put it here.  You want to start an argument or discussion?  Here is the place.  All non-troll, non-spam comments, suggestions, arguments, corrections are greatly appreciated.

As always, I love to hear from you.
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Where Are All the Scientologists? Part 4

We are now past the time when estimating the number of Church of Scientology members was even possible.  The reason for this is that the number of church members for a country simply becomes lost in the margin of error of any poll.  The last ARIS survey simply dumped "Scientology" into "Miscellaneous", with numbers too small to note.  Of course, the numbers would be much worse today.

In addition, it looks like the number of people outside of the church, who might still consider themselves a "Scientologist" (and answer a poll that way) is already larger than the number of people in the Church of Scientology.  Unless a poll specifically asked "inside or outside the church," the numbers would be meaningless.

Another problem in determining who really is a member of the Church of Scientology is that most people who no longer want to have anything to do with the church will pretend they still believe -- so they can talk to their friends and family who are church members.

For clarification, here are the different stages most Scientologists go through when waking up and leaving Scientology:

1. Scientologist finally admits that the actions of the church towards himself and others are abusive and wrong.  I say "finally admits" because almost all Scientologists already feel the church's actions are wrong, but they just don't admit it at first.
   This results in the Scientologist withdrawing support from the church while pretending they're still loyal.  This means they might still show up for the major events and may still take a course or buy a book, but that's about it.
2. Next, the Scientologist starts talking with other Scientologists about the problems and abuses they see.  As they learn to trust each other, they share their own stories of abuse and wrongdoing by the church.  At this point they eagerly pass along reports from outside the church, like the ones from Luis Garcia and Geir Isene.
   This results in a fifth column inside of the Church of Scientology.  These Scientologists actually become a conduit from outside Scientology whistle-blowers right into the very heart of the Church of Scientology.  This completely destroys the carefully constructed wall between the church and the real world.  This development is significant.
3. Then these Scientologists start to read the Internet -- the "forbidden" sites!  Initially, this can be very scary, since they have been assured that all sorts of terrible things will happen to them when they read these sites.  But they do and they are shocked and outraged at what they find about David Miscavige, Scientology and their church.
   This is the point where most stop having anything to do with the Church of Scientology.
4. Sooner or later they stop pretending they are still loyal to the Church of Scientology.  From there, they may participate in some independent Scientology group, or may cease to have anything to do with Scientology at all.  The latter is most common.

In the past, we have all wondered how to reach and talk to the very loyal, very dedicated believers at the core of Scientology.  The dogma of Scientology has made them virtually impossible to contact in any practical way.

The Scientologists at stage 2 and 3 are the way this inner core can and has been reached.  Reports from outside whistle-blowers like the reports from Luis Garcia and Geir Isene are written by Scientologists for Scientologists.  They speak the language and they frame the crimes and abuse against the "Ideal Scene" that all Scientologists believe in.  Some of these reports are from well-known and trusted Scientologists.

The previously impermeable bubble that protected members of the Church of Scientology from reality has been torn apart.  The crimes and abuses of David Miscavige and other top Scientologists are now known about and discussed widely within the church.  I'm sure the inner core of the most loyal Scientologists are fervently denying these reports, but they know about them.  This shakes them up.

And here David Miscavige comes to help the inner core make up their minds -- and not in the direction he intends.  He is attacking them.

As more and more Scientologists leave, the few remaining, very loyal Scientologists will come under increasing threats and increasing pressure.  Where there used to be thousands of Scientologists buying books and courses and donating to Miscavige's latest money-making scam, now there are just a few -- and Miscavige expects them to take up the slack -- and his pressure on them is beyond intense.

In addition, because Miscavige has gotten the idea that the truth is getting through to his followers, he is suspicious of every Scientologist and he will demand more Conditions, more Ethics and more Sec Checks.

Get the picture?  The increasing pressure, suspicion, Ethics, greed and threats will now hit at the most loyal, most dedicated Scientologists.  Miscavige can't help it, he must demand more and more money while treating people with more and more suspicion.

And his most loyal, dedicated followers, who have now heard of, and dismissed, stories of crimes and abuse will get the full brunt of Miscavige's greed.  They will get abused.  Criminal acts will occur -- illegal charges on their credit cards, for instance.

That inner, unreachable core of dedicated church members is under attack -- by Miscavige -- and now they will get the truth, whether they want it or not.

We are in the final days, but what is going on will be mostly hidden.  We will only hear about it later.
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Scientology New Years Event 2011

I know I promised some predictions, but this comment was just dropped into one of my Ask a Question threads, and I felt compelled to discuss it, and perhaps generate some fact checking.

We just heard about some of the announcements made at the latest Cof$ New Year's event. Here are some of the highlights:

• The Australian government is now funding WISE courses for anyone who wants to take them in that country.
• Superpower Bldg will be completed and superpower processes will start being delivered this year (2011).
• The statistics at various Ideal Orgs around the world are higher than stats at those orgs for the last ten to fifteen years combined.

I'm particularly interested in the claims about the Australian government funding WISE courses. If this is not an outright lie, there should be some documentation available.

Did anyone on this blog attend the event?

Are there any Aussies here who have info about the WISE courses being funded by the government?

Interesting.  I don't know if this description is accurate or complete, but the claims David Miscavige made are, as usual, hard to believe.  Hopefully more information will be forthcoming.

First, Miscavige claims that the "Australian government" is funding WISE courses.  Would that be the national government, a state government or what?  If true, this would need to be corrected.  Which agency?  Why does that agency think WISE courses have any value at all?  If this is true, the people of Australia need to raise the alarm that:

• A government agency is funding a "technology" that does not work, and may actually cause harm.
• The agency is funding a group that operates as a recruiting front group for the Church of Scientology.
• A significant part of all funds to WISE goes directly to the Church of Scientology.

If true, we thank Miscavige for bringing this transgression to the attention of the Australian people.

As for the second claim, I actually believe that Miscavige will order the completion of the Super Power building.  He has scammed over three times the money needed from Scientologists over the years -- hundreds of millions of dollars.  Money was never the problem.

The problem was that some of the "Super Power Rundowns" are actually impossible to deliver.  Some of the "rundowns" involved equipment and/or procedures that would never be approved by state and city regulators.  Other "rundowns" would be completely unacceptable to the public -- like running around a pole all day, week after week.

This claim by Miscavige that he will start "delivering Super Power" simply means that many of L. Ron Hubbard's original "Super Power Rundowns" have been drastically altered or removed completely, never to be delivered.  I was waiting for this to happen.  Miscavige has no problem altering Hubbard's tech -- and removing large chunks of it.  It was only a matter of time before he realized that was the solution to his Super Power problem -- just alter or delete large parts of it.

The fact that it no longer bears much resemblence to the original Super Power Rundowns by Hubbard won't bother Miscavige at all.

The third claim, that "statistics at various Ideal Orgs around the world are higher than stats at those orgs for the last ten to fifteen years combined" is classic David Miscavige misdirection and half-truths.

Here is the translated version: "Some [very carefully selected and meaningless] statistics at [some carefully selected] Ideal Orgs are higher than stats [not necessarily the same stats] at those orgs for the last ten to fifteen years  [a time period which was selected because those carefully selected stats were lower then] combined.

One of the hardest tasks in all of Miscavige Event preparation is finding some statistic and some time period which could be manipulated, redefined and modified so that the stat looks like it went up.

The truth is that all the other, real statistics from those Ideal Orgs have crashed.  That's why they weren't mentioned.  The truth is that all the Ideal Orgs are struggling and failing, as are all the rest of the orgs.  The truth is that all the Church of Scientology statistics, world wide, have crashed and have stayed crashed.

This is why Miscavige no longer displays his "exploding statistics".

Another Big Bogus Event, now with extra lies!

I appreciate the leaked information from the New Year's Event.  If anyone can provide more information, I'll update this post.
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