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Wednesday, May 7, 2008

What happens next?

Do you think Scientology is more likely to capsize and dissipate into micro-church groups or to reform by moderating its aggressive and illegal behavior?

Thanks for your question. This or something similar, seems to be a recurring question. Basically, what is going to happen to the Church of Scientology?

The core problem with answering this question is that the Church of Scientology is currently being run by a psychotic. Really. So predicting what he'll do is quite difficult. He is capable of random, senseless and strange actions.

However, there are thousands of Scientologists, both inside and outside of the church structure. Predicting their actions is easier.

First, the "Church of Scientology" can, and just may, last a long time--true believers being what they are. I believe that the current troubles will only increase and that the management of the church will be brought to justice. Legal actions, lawsuits and other troubles will cause the collapse of the church.

However, hard-core, true believers will recreate the "church", perhaps under a different name, and will struggle on. It will remain very small. Hopefully, all the abusive policies will be canceled. If they are not canceled, the new "church" will cease to exist rather quickly when all of its members also end up in jail.

Other Scientologists have already created small groups outside of the church under the general Free Zone label and this will continue. Scientologists, newly out of the "church", but still believing, will swell the various Free Zone groups and create new ones. Some Scientologists will continue to practice "Scientology" outside of any group or organization. A few of these groups may even claim to be churches, but most will not. It is doubtful that the various Free Zone groups will consolidate--they will undoubtedly remain rather small, independent and contentious.

This last is easy to predict, because it is already happening, and has been for many years.

But, basically, I think that most Scientologists have, and will continue to, simply quit all such Scientology-like activities. They will go back to their previous beliefs, they will look for a new system of beliefs, or nothing. They will retain anything they've found useful and discard the rest. This is already what happens for most ex-Scientologists.

Now that the truths about Scientology, Hubbard and Miscavige are out there and widely known, I am certain that any version of Scientology, whether reformed or not, will remain quite small. Expansion of Scientology is impossible when the truth is known.


  1. the church has endured our government's scrutiny for years and survived it. isn't it about time you stopped kicking it?

  2. the fact that the church must "endure scrutiny" should say something about the nature of the organization. you can concoct oppression fantasies till you are blue in theface, but the enemy of the church is the church. who wants to be tricked into something? lied to about something? who wants all the lines around them blurred regarding true and false? but these are justifiable means to an end in scientology. if you learn how to lie and trick wogs, you learn how to lie and trick fellow scientologists. you will enact what you practice. on everyone. it's called integrity: the part spreads to the whole. your behavior in one facet of life spreads out to behavior in every facet.

  3. "Isn't about time you stopped kicking it?"


    Isn't it about time your damn church stopped abusing people, breaking the law, lying and sneaking around?

    Isn't it about time your damn church started acting like a church instead of the mafia?

    When your church stops committing crimes, abuses and fraud, then I'll stop working against it.

    Fair enough?


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